14 DAY TRIAL // The newly-elected president of the United States will have to come up with a thorough but quick decision related to the fate of the space shuttle retirement program, which, in turn, will also affect the remaining missions, as well as a part of NASA's “Constellation” program referring to the replacement process. If he decides that the current shuttle program has to be maintained past is scheduled retirement in September 2010, he will also have to think of a reasonable plan related to its subsequent effects.
Judging by a list from the US Government Accountability Office (GAO), this is among the 13 most urgent problems that Obama has to address, so that NASA experts could build up on their plan to have the replacing spacecraft ready by March 2015, as scheduled. Extending the duration of the current shuttle relies on the same money, facilities and personnel that would otherwise be used for the development of the new Ares I / Orion shuttle.
Theoretically, the gap between the two shuttle programs would only take five years, during which NASA would use either Russian Soyuz capsules or some private spacecraft in order to maintain regular transportation to the International Space Station. But given the impact of the president's decision that would favor a longer lifespan of the present program, as well as the technical and financial difficulties that the Ares I rocket and the Orion capsule seem to experience, this gap may become larger.
The costs estimated by the American space agency related to keeping the current shuttle flying and accomplishing extra tasks after its targeted retirement would sum up to an amount comprised between $2.5 billion to $4 billion each year. Also, solving Ares I's technical faults could require another $7 billion, if it is to be accomplished by its deadline in 2015, according to a recent estimation made by the Congressional Budget Office. These are all issues that the president will have to ponder on at rocket speed in order to choose the best option in due time.