Sep 1, 2010 09:48 GMT  ·  By

Researchers from the University of Bradford have established a new method of predicting solar storms, thus avoiding widespread power and communications disruption, that triggers billions of pounds in costs.

Until recently, solar forecast was made manually, after experts looked at 2D images of the sun and predicted its future activity.

The researchers team from the University of Bradford’s Center for Visual Computing, have been working on an online automated prediction system that used 3D images supported by the joint NASA/ESA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory satellite (SOHO).

The Bradford Automated Solar Activity Prediction system (ASAP) is already used by both space agencies, and it identifies and classifies sun spots.

This data is introduced into a model that can predict the likelihood of solar flares, accurately, six hours in advance, AlphaGalileo reports.

The developers team is working on obtaining the same performances in the accuracy of predicting major solar eruptions in the near future.

During a solar storm, huge amounts of hot gas and magnetic forces from the Sun's surface are released into space at about one million miles an hour.

Even though major solar eruptions, called coronal mass ejections, usually take a few days to reach our planet, the largest one recorded was back in 1859 and took only 18 hours.

Solar flares take only a few minutes, and they can seriously affect communications systems, so having this warning system is extremely good news, as it allows taking several measures and avoiding the worst effects of solar activity.

The next round of major solar storms are expected in 2012-2013, as part of the 11-year weather cycle of the sun.

Dr Rami Qahwaji, leader of the EPSRC-funded research and reader in Visual Computing said: “Solar weather prediction is still very much in its infancy, probably at about the point that normal weather forecasting was around 50 years ago.

“However, by creating an automated system that can work in real time, we open up the possibility for much faster prediction and – with sufficient data – prediction of a wider range of activity.

“With NASA’s new Solar Dynamic Observatory satellite which came into operation in May, we have the chance to see the sun’s activity in much greater detail which will further improve our prediction capabilities.”

Dr Qahwaji is now gathering funds for further improvement of the system so that it can be adapted to work with the latest sun monitoring satellites.

For those interested in seeing how it actually works, go to http://spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk