14 DAY TRIAL // According to the latest previsions, the mobile phone market in Taiwan is expected to shrink during the ongoing year by 9.3 percent, down to around 6.4 million units. The Taipei-based Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute (MIC) says that slower handset replacements caused by the economic downturn would be the main cause for the shrinkage, due to the fact that around 80 percent of the Taiwanese market actually depends on replacement sales.
The Taiwanese mobile phone market volume is expected to reach 1.71 million units during the first quarter of the year, due to “issuance of consumption coupons and vendors' promotion programs” in said time frame. The Average Selling Price (ASP) is expected to reach NT$5,634 (US$165.85), while shipment value should be placed at NT$9.65 billion (US$284.07 million).
For what it's worth, 2009 is expected to become a crucial year for the Taiwanese mobile operators when it comes to their ability to strengthen their market share in the mobile Internet area. Due to the fact that they have little chances to offer differentiated Internet access services with existing data cards, they might try to lower the rates or to leverage the transmission capacity. At the same time, we might see wireless operators launching their own MIDs (Mobile Internet Devices) or e-book readers for different market segments in case the prices for chipsets and terminal devices drop to a certain level.
Last year, the Taiwanese mobile phone market registered year-on-year growth during the first quarter, yet posted a decline for the last three quarters when compared to the previous year. In the fourth quarter of 2008, the Taiwanese mobile phone market volume was 1.70 million units, 5.9 percent lower sequentially and 4.7 percent lower on a yearly basis. The ASP declined too, mainly because the consumer chose to acquire free phones when renewing subscriptions.
The only one that saw growth last year was the number of 3G subscribers. The sales of 3G phones accounted for 49.7 percent of the entire Taiwanese mobile phone market volume, while smartphones only registered 5 percent of the market volume. More information on the study can be found here.