Smartphones or the $100 laptop?

Feb 19, 2006 18:06 GMT  ·  By

The last time Bill Gates stepped up and criticized something he found it appropriate to say that smartphones and not laptops are the devices that will link third world countries to the Internet. That is somewhat hard to believe considering the fact that over the past few years, notebooks, Tablet PCs and all mobile systems have been selling in larg quantities and users all over the world are considering switching from desktops to laptops which are now capable to offer the same processing power output but are much more convenient and comfortable to use. Still, Bill Gates, because he is the man behind the laptop vs. smartphone death match, is convinced that cellular terminals will make the connection between users from developing countries and high speed networks. Even if Microsoft's leader was referring to third world countries or regions where technology is still too expensive to adopt on a wide scale, it's still hard to believe notebooks will be defeated by smartphones.

Last June, IDC (International Data Corporation) forecasted that by the year 2014, on a global scale, notebooks will outrank desktop PCs. In several areas like the United States or Western Europe, this migration should take place sooner, most likely sometime around 2008.

Again, last year, based on a study regarding small offices, requested by HP and published by Harris Interactive, 36% of the interviewed company owners said they were planning on updating their infrastructure by purchasing only notebooks throughout last year and this year as well. Another 35% stated that notebooks gave them the advantage and the tools for competing with bigger companies. At that time, IDC was estimating that the notebook market had increased 24% compared to the previous year.

Negroponte and his wife Elaine, founders of the Media Lab within MIT have started last year a project they hope will brighten the lives and prospects of hundreds of millions of developing world kids. The idea of minimizing the digital divide between the industrialized countries and the emerging ones has been discussed on previous occasions, but this time things are actually moving toward a happy ending. It's a grand challenge: to create rugged, Internet- and multimedia-capable laptop computers at a cost of $100 apiece. The laptops would be mass-produced in orders of no smaller than 1 million units and bought by governments, which would distribute them. The project revolving around the "one hundred dollar laptop" has been getting so much attention that the people behind it found it would be more suited to call the project "one laptop per child" (OLPC), which gives everybody a more clear perspective over what these people are trying to do. Ambitious projects to bridge the digital divide in the developing world at low cost have had a shaky track record and probably the best example is the Simputer, a $220 handheld device developed by Indian scientists in 2001 that became available only in 2004 and they didn't sell too well.

Details are still being worked out, but MIT's recipe involved having the laptop on a software diet, use the freely distributed Linux operating system and adding a battery capable of being recharged with a hand crank, use newly developed "electronic ink" or a novel rear-projected image display with a 12-inch screen. Then, give it Wi-Fi access, and add USB ports to hook up peripheral devices. Obviously, all this has to be done at the lowest possible cost and profits, sales costs and marketing expenses must be taken out of the picture. Out of the box, the $100 laptops will be able to communicate with one another using peer-to-peer mesh networking. Red Hat is now working to provide technical resources for this project, but could also be interested in offering training, support and providing updates or integrating additional technologies over time. Production is to begin when 5 - 15 million units have been ordered and paid for. Countries who expressed interest include China, India, Brazil, Argentina, Egypt, Nigeria and Thailand.

Negroponte's project appealed to many top brands from the IT scenery and companies such as Advanced Micro Devices, Google, News Corporation, Nortel, Brightstar and Rupert Murdoch's media company which offers global satellite capabilities have all contributed with money (they have committed an initial $2 million each to the initiative) or expertise and pushed forward this project. Other important names involved in the OLPC project are Quanta Computer, a Taiwan based company, which is one of the largest notebook producers and announced that it will produce the $100 laptop. A working prototype of this laptop has been presented back in November, when is appeared as a very basic laptop both in design as features-wise, with an attached crank for generating power whenever energy isn't available. Shortly afterwards, Intel chairman Craig Barrett stated publicly that potential computer users from developing countries would not want a laptop that uses a crank for generating power. Considering Advanced Micro Devices got to work with Negroponte to make this laptop a reality, it was to be expected that Intel wouldn't be exactly thrilled about this laptop and would take every opportunity to put it down.

Next in line to criticize the OLPC project was none other than Bill Gates, who thought the best idea to connect third world countries to high speed networks would be to use smartphones, to which users would connect basic keyboards and they would use TV screens to display images. Gates made these points during the conference held end of January in Davos, Switzerland. Could it be again just a reaction to Linux being the first choice as operating system for the 100 dollar laptop and that Windows CE was left aside? Or could it be an attempt to stop the forthcoming avalanche of users that will be educated only for Linux, which means less market share for Microsoft?

So what better alternative for Microsoft than to pack its bags, move out of the way of negotiations with Negroponte and start making its very own version of the OLPC, only based on smartphones. Gates was joined by Craig J. Mundie, Microsoft's vice president and chief technology officer, who also said that the company was still developing the idea of having a smartphone built especially for developing countries, and both stated that cellphones were a better way than laptops to bring computing to the masses in developing nations. However, Mundie proved to be quite the diplomatic and didn't forget to mention he appreciated Negroponte's efforts with the OLPC project, but he still thinks that isn't the best approach.

What are we to understand from all of this? That the grapes are sour for both Intel and Microsoft? This round, which could be very important for how the IT scenery could develop in the near future, was won by AMD and Linux. And another winner is also VoIP, as Skype has also joined the OLPC initiative.

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