The goal is to create new predictions methods against storms

Aug 2, 2010 08:41 GMT  ·  By

When tropical storms turn into hurricanes, people living around the Gulf of Mexico, and in neighboring US states, have good reason to be concerned. History has shown on countless occasions precisely how dangerous these atmospheric manifestations could be and that people would do good to get out of the way as fast as possible. Over the years however, the number of victims these events made has been decreasing, thanks to advancements in prediction technologies. Still, researchers want to do better, and this is the goal of the PREDICT research initiative, LiveScience reports.

A collaboration of NASA, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the US National Science Foundation (NSF), the Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud Systems in the Tropics study will seek to develop new methods of predicting when and where a storm will hit. Even with our current technology, determining how a tropical storm will develop over time is still extremely difficult, and forecasters are oftentimes thrown off-guard by developments. Over the past few years, numerous research initiatives, including the VORTEX and VORTEX2 studies, have been undertaken to discover more aspects related to these atmospheric events.

As part of PREDICT, numerous airplanes will survey the Gulf of Mexico this season. The aircraft will be outfitted with special equipment, and their job will be to fly in the center of storms, and collect new data on how these phenomena change over time. The researchers will also attempt to identify even more of the factors that play a role into how tropical storms develop. It is widely known that some become deadly hurricanes, while others fade into nothingness, and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) scientist Christopher Davis says that the PREDICT team is curious to learn how and why this happens.

“The idea here is if we can come up with what is the essential distinguishing characteristic between storms that develop and storms that do not, it may tell forecasters what they really need to look for,” explains Davis. Another goal in PREDICT is extending the current forecast limit from five to seven days. “We've made tremendous strides in track forecasting. Our five-day forecast is as accurate as our three-day track forecast just 15 years ago,” explains Dennis Feltgen, a researcher at the National Hurricane Center.