14 DAY TRIAL // After a dismal 2008 when the IT industry was faced with serious problems, the 9% decrease in the semiconductor market during 2009 was almost seen as a relief, considering how much less optimistic the estimates made at the start of the year had been. Now, the market seems to be on a rebound, at least that's what IDC (International Data Corporation) forecasts. Apparently, semiconductor sales and revenues will improve this year and will keep on growing until 2014.
IDC states that double-digit growth in PC, smartphone, memory, military, industrial, automotive and aero markets have already begun to positively influence the semiconductor segment. The Asia/Pacific region will be the main driving force behind this chip sale surge and will supposedly hold a 45% share of all revenues by 2014. When it comes to the short term, chip sales are expected to amount to about $274 billion in 2010. This figure will grow to over $300 billion in 2012 and $344 by 2014. On the other hand, the European crisis and the high unemployment rates in the US might negatively impact upon this segment during the second half of the ongoing year.
"Overall, we believe that the semiconductor market recovery seen this is year is similar to the one in 2004. The 2010 growth rate based on the bottoms-up model used in the Semiconductor Application Forecaster is consistent with our top-down linear-regression model that factors in seasonality in semiconductor orders and with our scenario analysis model," said Mali Venkatesan, research manager, Semiconductors at IDC, who led the study and compiled the SAF data.
"However, global economic recovery that started in the second half of 2009 is in danger of slowing down due to macroeconomic problems such as the Euro crisis, continued high unemployment in the U.S., with the associated low consumer sentiment, and the fear of an asset bubble in the BRIC countries. In such a scenario, the expected growth in the second half of 2010 may be pushed into early 2011. Nevertheless, we believe device applications such as smartphones, mobile PCs, media tablets, and automotive will show strong secular growth both in 2010 and 2011," Venkatesan added.