The current issue of the International Journal of Services Sciences may hold insight that could potentially help homeland security agencies in the United States and other western countries untangle the intricate connections of terrorist cells. According to the paper, some similarities may exist between the way social networking sites are set up, and that in which a terrorist supplies chain functions. One of the first things that the effort would identify would be the central nodes of the networks, as in the hubs of communication, which are not necessary either the planner or the executers of the missions.

The paths of the network could then be traced back to individual cells, to the suppliers and financiers, and to the masterminds behind all the attacks. The study, Analyzing Covert Social Network Foundation Behind Terrorism Disaster, was authored by Japanese researchers Dr. Yoshiharu Maeno, who is a founder management consultant for the Social Design Group, and Dr. Yukio Ohsawa, who is a University of Tokyo School of Engineering associate professor.

The two believe that their analytical approach could one day lead to an increased success rate in stopping terrorist attacks dead in their tracks, after it's refined.

“If the investigators had had a warning information on the 19 hijack planners (including WA and MA) before 9/11, our analysis could have aided the investigators in quickly understanding the complete picture of the organized attack including the covert foundation (like MAAH). I am not sure, however, whether even a very quick investigators' understanding and action could have prevented the attack. Our analysis seems more suitable to satisfying the long-term need than the short-term need,” Yoshiharu explains.

Terrorist attacks can cause significant losses, as far as the human population, structures and morale go, and can, in some respects, be likened to natural disasters. But, the Japanese researchers say, a big difference emerges.

While, as regards disasters, authorities only need to deal with the short-term effects of the devastation, in case of a terrorist attack, investigators have to clean up the mess of the actual attack, hunt the terrorists behind it, and then try to weaken the entire organization. The latter objective is a long-term commitment, and those who engage in it know that there's a good chance nothing will ever be uncovered.

Having applied their model to the 9/11 attacks on the US, the Japanese team managed to successfully demonstrate that the key person in the terrorist group was Waleed Alshehri, who, in their model, appeared as having six links, more than any other suspect. A thorough investigation by federal agencies eventually led to this conclusion, but, had the model been available before the attacks, it could have been unearthed a lot sooner.