14 DAY TRIAL // The ongoing Ebola epidemic in West Africa has so far killed over 4,500 people. Besides, cases of people infected with the deadly virus have been reported in several countries across the world, the US and Spain included.
As bad as things might seem, a recent report in the journal The Lancet says that, all things considered, they could be way worse. Thus, it appears that conditions exist for other regions to be hit by an outbreak as terrifying as the one in West Africa.
Long story short, the report in question argues that, according to evidence at hand, as many as 3 people carrying the Ebola virus could fly out of West Africa to destinations all around the globe each and every month.
The only thing that is keeping the virus from spreading out of West Africa is the fact that health officials are now carrying out screening operations in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone and making sure that infected people remain in these countries.
Assessing Ebola risk in regions other than West Africa
As part of this investigation, researchers analyzed global flight schedules for the year 2014 and flight itineraries recorded back in 2013. The end goal was to determine population movements out of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone.
It was discovered that, in 2013 alone, as many as 500,000 people flew of these countries. Of these travelers, the majority headed to Ghana (17.5%), Senegal (14.4%), the UK (8.7%), France (7.1%), and Gambia (6.8%), Science Daily informs.
As far as the year 2014 is concerned, it appears that, of the people looking to leave either of these three Ebola-stricken countries by plane, as many as 60% have low and lower-middle countries as their final destination.
This means that, but for screening operations at international airports in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, the virus could easily spread to other regions whose faulty economy and poor medical care systems would make it nearly impossible to keep another epidemic from happening.
“Given that these countries have limited medical and public health resources, they may have difficulty quickly identifying and effectively responding to imported Ebola cases,” said Dr. Kamran Khan at St. Michael’s Hospital in Toronto, Canada.
As encouraging as their findings that screening operations are in fact keeping the disease from spreading might be, Dr. Kamran Khan and colleagues warn that, the more it takes health officials to stop the epidemic in West Africa, the higher chances the virus has to move on to other regions.
“The risk of international spread could increase significantly if the outbreak in West Africa persists and grows,” the specialist said in a statement. “Risks to the global community would further increase if Ebola virus were to spread to and within other countries with weak public health systems,” he added.
What to take from this study
Writing in the journal The Lancet, the specialists behind this investigation argue that, first off, their report is intended to show that, rather than being a complete waste of time and money, screening operations are effective in terms of making sure Ebola does not leave West Africa.
Hence, it's important to make sure that world leaders and global health organizations continue to support Liberia’s, Guinea's, and Sierra Leone's efforts to keep people that might be carrying the Ebola virus in their bodies from leaving West Africa.
More so given the fact that, by the looks of it, screening operations are way more effective when carried out on airports in regions affected by the epidemic and not in countries that potential Ebola patients might want to travel to.