As global warming and climate change make their effects felt more and more, researchers are beginning to collect enough data to predict which areas of the world will suffer most. In such a study, investigators determined that the Mediterranean Basin, surrounding the sea of the same name, will suffer extensively at the “hands” of heatwaves. These phenomena, relatively rare centuries ago, are now taking place with increased frequency, due to the fact that the regular workings of the atmosphere are being disturbed by increased temperatures and excessive pollution,
Nature News reports.
“Low-lying humid plains, such as around the River Po in northern Italy, and coastal cities such as Athens, Rome and Marseilles, are likely to be more severely affected by dangerous heat conditions than higher and drier inland regions,” explains Erich Fischer. The scientist, who is based at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich, conducted the work with colleague Christoph Schar. The team based its analysis on datasets obtained from global and regional climate models, which they studied extensively. The goal of their project was to predict changes that may occur in the frequency and duration of summer heatwaves, for the next nine decades.
The scientists did not use the worst-case-scenario models, but rather a middle-of-the-road approach, in which some mitigation measures were included, but pollution continued to increase. Their simulation also accounted for projected economic growth, given the fact that the state of the economy generally dictates the length governments are willing to go to mitigate the effects of global warming. If there is no money, then it's highly unlikely that authorities will take money away from essential sectors to promote clean energy and CCS technologies. In the study, the investigators also sought to determine what impact the heatwaves will have on human health.
In a paper they published in this week's issue of the esteemed scientific journal Nature Geoscience, Fischer and Schar say that cramps, exhaustion, heat stroke and death are some of the most common results of exposure to heat and high humidity. They support their argument by highlighting the fact that the massive heatwave that struck Europe in 2003 made more than $16 billion in damages, and killed an estimated 70,000 people. The reason why citizens living around the Mediterranean Sea will be most affected is the fact that they will be exposed to the combined actions of both heat and humidity. When the air is dry, the human body can withstand high temperatures, but add humidity, and you're set for disaster.
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