HD DVD, The Ultimate Victor of the Format War?

As usual, not a day goes by without yet another piece of information being relayed to us from the deep trenches of the next-generation DVD format war, accompanied by some further speculation regarding which side will ultimately prevail. And this time, we're talking about a research carried out by a firm called The Diffusion Group, which points out to the Toshiba-backed HD DVD format as the most likely to get all the spoils of this "bloody" confrontation.

Thus, according to the respective study, close to one-third of non-HDTV households are interested in purchasing a new HDTV in the next six months. More interesting, perhaps, is that the same research found that the characteristics of these "HDTV Intenders" vary widely from that of current HDTV owners. HDTV Intenders tend to be younger, single, more ethnically diverse, and have lower annual household incomes than current HDTV owners - in many respects more characteristic of mainstream consumers than the early adopters who today own an HDTV.

While this trend could in theory benefit either Blu-ray or HD DVD, the data suggests otherwise. Among HDTV Intenders who are likely to purchase a new high-def DVD player in the next six months, 43% prefer HD DVD, 27% prefer Blu-ray, and 30% are undecided.

"Today's high-def DVD owner is likely an early adopter with a knack for power gaming; most certainly tech-sophisticates not at all mainstream in temperament" said Michael Greeson, president and principal analyst with The Diffusion Group. However, things will be a bit different on the future, because, as Mr. Greeson points out, "The next wave of buyers is comprised of early mass-market consumers, a much larger segment with a focus on practical considerations such as price. It is TDG's opinion that the format which can best address the needs of mainstream consumers will emerge as the winner of this format war."

Things are still rather unclear in the format war, because almost each new market study regarding this ongoing competition for the consumers' cash carried out by various research companies has a different conclusion, pointing towards either HD DVD or Blu-ray as the ultimate winner. Nevertheless, as usual, only time will tell whether these predictions are true. In the mean time, my money's on the dual-format, hybrid players that are starting to pop up.


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