Michael Pachter, who is an analyst of the videogame industry employed by consulting firm Wedbush Morgan, said that the overall financial estimates for Activision Blizzard related to 2009 had been lowered, mostly because of the lackluster performance of the Guitar Hero franchise.
Estimates for the fiscal third quarter, which ends on December 30, have been taken down from 2.25 billion to 2.12 billion dollars, with earnings per share lowered by 3 cents to 30 cents.
Activision Blizzard itself said that it expected revenue of 2.2 billion dollars and a per share earning of 20 cents. For 2009, estimates for the company have been lowered to 3.54 billion from 3.67 billion dollars.
Patcher detailed the main reason for the reduction, saying “Our channel checks indicate that recent increases in Guitar Hero sales and better than expected sales of Call of Duty and Wrath of the Lich King were insufficient to offset the weak initial GH sales.”
It seems that sales of the whole Guitar Hero series have been limited this year, registering a drop of 32% as far as value goes and a drop of 22% as far as copies sold go. The downward trend is probably due both to competition from the Harmonix made
Rock Band 2 and to the fact that players are growing tired of the Guitar Hero labeled releases, like the games specifically designed for bands such as Aerosmith and AC/DC.
In 2009, at least one more Guitar Hero title is set to the released, based on songs from rock band Metallica. Activision Blizzard is also set to receive a game that might be named DJ Hero, of which little is known at the moment. If franchise fatigue sets in, then Activision will really need to find another intellectual property to bring in the majority of its revenue.
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