Global warming could speed up

Nov 14, 2007 10:08 GMT  ·  By

The U.S. emits about one quarter of the total greenhouse gas emissions in the world, which pretty much makes it the biggest pollutant. About 85 percent of the total emissions in North America come from the U.S., 9 percent from Canada, and 3 percent from Mexico. Studies show that in the next 50 years, the gas emissions could increase more quickly.

The simulations conducted at MIT, suggest that rather than reducing the CO2 emissions in the year to come, technology will most likely trigger the reverse effect. In spite of the imposed increases in the energy prices, technology has not been responsible for energy use reduction. In the U.S., selling energy at high prices is politically unappetizing, but in Europe, a gallon of gas is now sold with six dollars. By selling energy more expensive, people will eventually use less of it.

The research was based on the periods from 1958 to 1996 and 1980 to 1996, and the results were projected from 2000 to 2050. From the study of the last 50 years, and based on a realistic expectation of technological advance, the team found that the rates of energy demand and emissions of greenhouse gases may accelerate from 2.2 percent and 1.6, respectively, of the previous historical records. The rates of growth could rise with half percent or more, which could become significant over the next fifty years.

Such examples of technological advances are present today, which shows that though we have better technologies, we are still emitting more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. For example, most of the furnaces that produce steel in the world are now electrically heated, so there is no more fossil fuel burned. But although electric furnaces don't emit carbon dioxide during the heating process, some of the power plants that produce the electric energy are still using coal. This example clearly shows that technological advances do not necessarily produce a drop in the gas emissions.

Richard Eckaus, the scientist which has conducted this research, has also been a former consultant to the World Bank, and advisor on economic policy to Egypt, India, and other countries. He suggests that a new approach should be used, such as energy taxes or a system of caps on energy use. The restrictions applied for the greenhouse gas emissions, could have a potential negative effect on society and labor employment policies, which could leave several thousands people unemployed, which could cause a depression effect on the U.S.

He also suggests that there should be two policies regarding this problem; one to counteract the labor market policy, and one to restrict the greenhouse emissions and the negative economic impact, and help the workers displaced from the affected industries. Certain studies regarding labor and wages show that they will adjust, and some assume that they will adjust quickly, but the research conducted by Eckaus says that this will not follow quickly, and a new economic policy is needed.