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October 18th, 2010, 13:59 GMT · By

Globalization Weakens World's Economy

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Globalization is making it harder for the world's economy to come out of financial downturns
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Researchers at the Rice University have demonstrated that increased trade globalization is having a negative impact on the world's economy, making it more prone to experiencing recessions, and making it more difficult for it to recover afterwards.

The team applied a series of rules similar to those seeking to explain the evolution of the genome to obtain the new conclusions, experts at the university write in an upcoming issue of the journal Physical Review Letters.

“Standard economic theory suggests that trade networks with a more modular structure tend to recover more slowly from recessions, but using evolutionary theory we predicted the opposite, and UN trade data indicate we were right,” explains Michael Deem.

He is the John W. Cox Professor in Biochemical and Genetic Engineering at Rice, and also a professor of physics and astronomy at the university. He authored the work with graduate student Jiankui He.

The team took a close look at United Nations trade data spanning back more than 40 years, and determined a causal relation between increased globalization and a deteriorating world economy.

Scientists with the group say that the key concept in this research is modularity, a term that is widely used in biology to refer to parts of larger systems that have somewhat autonomous functions as well.

In other words, a small part of a system can function with relative ease on its own, regardless of the part it plays in the greater system. This is true in all living things, starting at a cellular level.

Three years ago, Deem and Jun Sun, then a Rice postdoctoral fellow, showed that modularity appeared spontaneously in biological system that were evolving slowly, and which possessed information that could be swapped, such as for instance genes.

“What we showed in 2007 was that under certain conditions, a changing environment leads to the development of a modular structure,” Deem explains.

“We considered the world trade network to be an evolving system, and we know information in the form of business practices is readily swapped throughout the trade network,” he adds

“Since it matches the conditions for our theory, we hypothesized that it would also follow the same physical rules,” the expert argues.

“Another of our predictions was that recessions would cause the world trade network to become more hierarchical, and this is something that was borne out by the data as well,” Deem adds .

Funding for the new investigation was provided by the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA).

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Comment #1 by: Robin Bew - EIU Economist on 21 Oct 2010, 14:46 UTC reply to this comment

I think it's pretty well acknowledged that globalisation means more interconnectedness and, as a result, more synchronised growth (and slowdowns) across countries. But that's very different from saying trade or globalisation is bad for global growth. The huge gains in living standards we've saw in the past couple of decades in South East Asian, Eastern Europe and China have all been trade based.

Comment #1.1 by: Tudor Vieru on 22 Oct 2010, 06:21 GMT

I am sorry, but that is only partially true. China grew because it learned how to exploit the international system for its own gain. And, as one living in an Eastern European nation, I must say that free trade and markets are destroying my country's economy.

Without subsidies for local farmers (which are forbidden in the EU), our products cannot compete with cheaper ones from the EU. This is forcing everybody out of work.

And please, if you reply, don't bother mentioning the long-term, "positive" effects that this will have, because nothing of the sort ever happened anywhere in the world.

Also, search Softpedia with "globalization," and read the article i wrote about free trade and African hunger a while back.

Thanks

Comment #1.2 by: Robin Bew - EIU Economist on 22 Oct 2010, 13:07 GMT

You'll have to supply a link to your article, as it didn't come up on the search. I agree that there can be losers from globalisation, not least low skilled workers on the OECD who are seeing jobs off-shored. But saying that some groups lose if not that same as saying the whole countries or the world lose. In fact, embracing trade has helped lift many country out of poverty.

On China, the government may be manipulating it's exchange rate. But it's wrong to imply that China wins and the rest of the world loses. US consumers have benefited enormously from the flow of low cost goods from China in recent years, and standards of living have risen in the US as a result (think of all the consumer electronic products which are mainstream now but were unafordable ten years ago).

On Eastern Europe, most countries there have an income per capital (GDP per head at PPP) at least twice as high now as in 1990, in large part because of trade integration with Western Europe. Of course, if your country's agricultural sector is being hurt by the EU Common Agriculture Policy (CAP), that's dreadful. But that damage is happening because trade in agriculture isn't globalised enough, not because it's too globalised. The CAP is a clear trade restriction - almost anti-globalisation. Most advocates of trade and globalisation would like to see it abolished. Progress in the Doha round of trade negotiations (which most would argue is a pro-globalisation process) would actually help by forcing liberalisation on the EU.

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