Global Warming Could Spur War

In the end, life is a struggle for resources. Food and water are essential, and their lack appears to have been the reason for many wars along the history. Global warming, too, could provoke this, as a team discovered, based on historical clues, that climate changes induced by global warming, temperature and rainfall pattern shifts can significantly impair the availability of crops, livestock and drinking water.

The researchers reviewed 899 wars which took place in China between 1000 and 1911 and spotted a link between the frequency of warfare and temperature variance. "It was the oscillations of agricultural production brought by long-term climate change that drove China's historical war-peace cycles," signaled lead author David Zhang of the University of Hong Kong.

A report released by several top retired American military leaders in April signaled the national security threat represented by global warming, that could trigger wars over water, increased numbers of refugees from rising sea levels and outbursts of famine and disease.

"Climate change could possibly improve growing conditions in some areas (particularly higher latitudes), while hurting them in others (especially the tropics). What that sets up is a sort of winners and losers situation," explained William Easterling of Pennsylvania State University, not involved in this research, but who worked at the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report on the potential impacts of climate change.

"All-out war is unlikely unless international institutions and global markets completely fail, but the change in distribution of resources could cause international tensions [to] intensify," Easterling told LiveScience.

He gave the example of Israel's control over local water resources and the way it used this precious resource in the conflict with the Palestinians. "It became a huge political tool. The correlation cited by the authors of the new study did not necessarily prove that temperature changes caused increased warfare, but that there could certainly be a relationship between the two", Easterling said.