14 DAY TRIAL // According to a survey of more than 90 prominent scientists involved in ocean and climate studies, global ocean levels may increase by more than 1 meter (3.3 feet) by 2100 if greenhouse gas emission patterns remain at current level.
Over the next century, the researchers predict, sea levels may increase anywhere between 70 and 120 centimeter (2.3 to 4 feet). Their answer takes into account a world where carbon dioxide and methane emissions remain at current levels, and do not fluctuate up or down.
Since a reduction in emissions is not likely to occur anytime soon – as demonstrated by the repeated failure of climate talks organized yearly by the United Nations – it stands to reason that more and more carbon dioxide will be put into the atmosphere with every passing year.
As such, the actual sea level increase may be significantly larger, the researchers warn. As temperatures increase, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Greenland ice sheet will be the most severely affected. These are the most vulnerable ice fields in the world today, and the most likely to be affected, too.
The new survey covered 90 scientists highly active in Earth, atmosphere and ocean studies, recruited from 18 countries, and represents the largest initiative of this type. The work was conducted by investigators in Germany and the United States. The full results appear in a recent issue of the journal Quaternary Science Reviews, Planet Save reports.
Respondents to the survey were presented with two scenarios, one in which emissions remain at current levels, and one in which emissions were significantly reduced from 2013 levels. The second scenario resulted in a slightly-lower global sea level increase, of 40 to 60 centimeters (1.3 to 2 feet).
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research expert Stegan Rahmstorf, one of the scientists who conducted the survey, says that the first scenario “would threaten the survival of some coastal cities and low-lying islands,” something that was first hypothesized many years ago.
As evidenced by the latest UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, scientists tend to approximate sea level rises to lower values than what is observed in reality. The last IPCC document revised the 2007 predictions upwards by around 60 percent.