14 DAY TRIAL // According to new official estimates, the already deteriorating conditions in most parts of Asia could reach a critical point by the half of this century, unless significant and long-term water reforms are set in place. The lack of irrigation systems, coupled with shifting weather patterns – caused by climate change –, will deal a devastating blow to the continent's food supplies. The crops that will be most affected include rice, which is the basic food at least for two billion people, one third of the world's population, ScienceDaily reports.
Wheat and maize will also be adversely affected by the water shortages, the new study by the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) and the United Nations (UN) Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) shows. By 2050, a large number of Asian nations could end up importing more than a quarter of their necessary crops, which would place them at an increased dependency on the outside world. The situation would also mean that any fluctuations in the price of grains would severely affect these countries' economies, leading to long-lasting downturns that would impact the region.
The conclusions of this study were drawn from the advanced WATERSIM computer simulation, which was fed established data and trends that influenced Asia at the moment. The finds were presented at the 2009 World Water Week, held in Stockholm, on August 17th. “In the wake of a major global food crisis in 2007 and 2008, cereal prices are expected to be higher and more volatile in the coming years,” the Director General of IWMI, Colin Chartres, said at the meeting. His studies were supported by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR).
“Asia's food and feed demand is expected to double by 2050. Relying on trade to meet a large part of this demand will impose a huge and politically untenable burden on the economies of many developing countries. The best bet for Asia lies in revitalizing its vast irrigation systems, which account for 70 percent of the world's total irrigated land,” the expert added. “Today, the option of expanding irrigated land area in Asia to feed a growing population is becoming increasingly problematic due to land or water constraints,” one of the new study's lead authors and an IWMi expert, Aditi Mukherji, shared.
The real downside of the new report, experts say, is that it does not take into account the potential influence of global warming and climate change. While climatologists know that rains will become more erratic, and monsoon patterns will shift, these things are very difficult to simulate, and therefore predictions are hard to make.