Shipments plummeted so far that they might as well be in free fall

Apr 11, 2013 09:19 GMT  ·  By

One might think that 76.3 million would be a large number, when talking about PC shipments accumulated over a period of three months, but this really isn't the case, in IDC's view.

In fact, that figure, achieved during the first quarter of the year (Q1 2013) is quite low by the analysts' standards.

Analysts did expect a fall in shipments during that period, especially since it followed the holiday shopping season, but things turned out worse than expected.

It isn't even the on-quarter change that we are talking about, but the year-over-year comparison.

Rather than a 7.7% drop compared to the same period of the previous year, the decline was of 13.9%, making 1Q 2013 the worst quarter that IDC has ever tracked in terms of year-on-year declines.

And since IDC has been keeping an eye on the PC industry since 1994, that's a big number of quarters.

"Although the reduction in shipments was not a surprise, the magnitude of the contraction is both surprising and worrisome," said David Daoud, IDC research director, personal computing.

"The industry is going through a critical crossroads, and strategic choices will have to be made as to how to compete with the proliferation of alternative devices and remain relevant to the consumer. Vendors will have to revisit their organizational structures and go to market strategies, as well as their supply chain, distribution, and product portfolios in the face of shrinking demand and looming consolidation."

In other words, IT players have to change pretty much the entire way they go about their business, and some may leave the PC market altogether, either by switching to something else (tablets/phones) or simply disappearing.

Mini notebooks have all but vanished from public awareness (netbooks) and ultrabooks have been dragging their feet mostly, as Windows 8 got a lukewarm welcome.

We have no doubt that quite a few smaller brands will be assimilated by the top five: HP, Lenovo, Dell, Acer and ASUS.