14 DAY TRIAL // A recently published report from ABI Research shows that the number of femtocells to be shipped on the market during the ongoing year is expected to be of only 350,000. The research firm thus adjusted its previous forecast on the matter, which placed the shipments of femtocells to about 790,000 before the end of this year. According to ABI Research, the new forecast, reduced by 55 percent when compared to the previous one, shows that the adoption of femtocells has been slower than expected.
“Even femtocell vendors are a bit surprised that the operators haven't pushed femtocells as much or as soon as expected,” says practice director Aditya Kaul. “We expect that deployments in 2010 will pick up but will be slower than expected - our data suggests about a 40% reduction on previous estimates.” However, it should be mentioned that most of the large carriers around the world (like AT&T, Verizon, and Sprint in the US) have femtocells included in their offering. Vodafone has the service available in the UK, and China Unicom announced recently femtocells offering as well.
According to the research firm, the slow adoption of femtocells does not enjoy a specific explanation from wireless carriers. Even so, there are some industry watchers which claim that the femtocells solutions haven't yet proved their true value. According to Aditya Kaul, there are also a series of other factors that need be taken into consideration, such as the general economic malaise, which results in considering the $150 price tag of an unsubsidized femtocell a rather leveraged cost.
Other factors would also include the time needed to prepare the network for the deployment of femtocells, as well as the fear that a larger presence of femtocells on the market might cause interference in the macro network. “We still believe in this market's potential. We anticipate that by 2014, shipments will only be about 10% lower than our previous estimates. The drivers are real, but it will take longer than anticipated. Next year will be critical: if conditions don't improve by the end of 2010, some smaller vendors may find themselves in trouble,” Kaul concluded.