14 DAY TRIAL // According to the conclusions of a new scientific study by researchers at the University of Kassel, in Germany, and the Joint Research Center (JRC) of the European Commission, it would appear that the Old Continent will suffer from widespread droughts and water scarcity by the end of this century.
This effect will occur on account of global climate change, the researchers discovered. This phenomenon will cause droughts to increase in both frequency and intensity, especially in the southern parts of the continent, including the Mediterranean Basin.
Details of the new investigation were published in the January 9 issue of the open-access scientific journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, which is edited by the European Geosciences Union.
One of the main problems that researchers have identified for the immediate future is increased water usage, primarily caused by population growth and increased demands from agriculture. Many rivers in southern Europe will therefore have very little water during the summer by 2100, the team argues.
Officials statistics reveal that the European Union has lost more than €100 billion ($136 billion) to the economic, societal and environmental impacts of droughts over the past 30 years. If this phenomenon were to aggravate, then the EU needs to be prepared to handle all consequences in advance.
“Our research shows that many river basins, especially in southern parts of Europe, are likely to become more prone to periods of reduced water supply due to climate change,” explains JRC climate risk management researcher Giovanni Forzieri, who was also the lead author of the new paper.
“An increasing demand for water, following a growing population and intensive use of water for irrigation and industry, will result in even stronger reductions in river flow levels,” he explains further.
The team predicts that areas in the Iberian Peninsula (which holds Spain and Portugal), the Italian Peninsula, southern France, and in the Balkans will be the most severely affected. Rivers at these locations may have flow levels up to 40 percent lower than at present.
The research centers on the prediction that global temperatures will increase by around 3.4 degrees Celsius by 2100, when compared to average levels recorded between 1961 and 1990. The exact extent of the warming that will occur around the world cannot be predicted exactly, so variations may occur.
“The results of this study emphasize the urgency of sustainable water resource management that is able to adapt to these potential changes in the hydrological system to minimize the negative socio-economic and environmental impacts,” concludes Forzieri.