14 DAY TRIAL // Since Windows XP SP2 was released at the end of 2004, there has been only one constant for Microsoft on the operating system market, namely a slow descendant trajectory, and Mac OS X and Linux eroding its audience. According to statistics put together by Net Applications, Windows' market share has dropped from 93.33% in January 2007 to just 91.13% in May 2008, while Mac OS X and Linux jumped from 6.22% and 0.35% at the start of the past year to 7.83% and respectively 0.68% at the end of the past month. But don't hurry up and count Windows Vista SP1 and Windows XP SP3 out yet in the race against OS X and Linux. The reason comes from a booming PC market.
Analyst firms Gartner and IDC are forecasting strong growth for the computer market in 2008. Gartner is estimating that worldwide, by the end of 2008, in excess of 297 million new PCs will be shipped, representing a growth of 12.5% compared to 2007. Gartner indicated that emerging markets would be the key in terms of the evolution of computer shipment. No less than 80% of the revenues of the Windows Client Division comes from operating systems sold preloaded on new machines. Throughout 2008, Microsoft will continue to sell Windows Vista SP1 alongside Windows XP SP3, with the latter only on ultra-low-cost desktops and mobile computers, and through downgrade rights.
"PC shipments should continue to maintain double-digit growth so long as emerging markets remain strong. Emerging markets appear less imperiled by the economic slowdowns taking place in the United States and other mature markets than we once thought. However, rising oil and food prices are accelerating inflation in many emerging markets and this could begin to squeeze PC demand in those markets, especially if local policymakers respond by curbing GDP growth to cool inflation. Even so, it is unlikely that emerging market PC growth would slow so much that global PC growth would slip into the mid-single digits," explained George Shiffler, research director at Gartner.
IDC's forecasts are even more favorable to Microsoft than Gartner's, predicting that worldwide shipments could go over 310 million units by the end of this year. This would translate into a growth of 15.2% in 2008 compared to the past year, and a jump in the install base of Windows. Just as Gartner, IDC also sees strong growth in mobile PCs, as well as in the shipments of ultra-low-cost machines, both mobiles and desktops.
"Even as the PC market grapples with slower growth in more developed markets, adoption cycles for new operating systems, processors, and other components, and convergence of media and devices, the success of portable PCs continues to drive the market," commented Loren Loverde, director of IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. "Despite recent economic pressure, the consistent gains fueled by Portable adoption, falling prices, and new users - particularly in emerging regions - will continue to drive growth during the forecast."