14 DAY TRIAL // Analyst firm IHS iSuppli has reached the conclusion that ultrabooks aren't going to even nearly come close to the sales number that was envisioned at the start of the year.
Previously, iSuppli's vague idea of how many ultrabooks would ship this year (2012) was close to 22 million.
The prediction was based on the apparent enthusiasm of Intel and all the notebook makers that became part of its program over the past two years.
There was also the hope that the ultrathin and light notebooks would become cheaper, instead of failing to, even now, go below the $750 mark (581-750 Euro).
Thus, having seen how few ultraportable PCs will sell this year, iSuppli has adjusted its ultrabook forecast considerably: 10.3 million.
Compared to the aforementioned 22 million (which, in fact, is a higher number than the recent ultrathin PC total figure), that is a drop of 53%.
"There once was a time when everyone knew the 'Dude you're getting a Dell' slogan. Nowadays no one can remember a tag line for a new PC product, including for any single Ultrabook," said Craig Stice, senior principal analyst for compute platforms at IHS.
"So far, the PC industry has failed to create the kind of buzz and excitement among consumers that is required to propel Ultrabooks into the mainstream. This is especially a problem amid all the hype surrounding media tablets and smartphones. When combined with other factors, including prohibitively high pricing, this means that Ultrabook sales will not meet expectations in 2012."
iSuppli is not ready to say the form factor is hopeless, not with Intel's Haswell CPUs on the horizon. Nevertheless, the next-generation platform won't be out before 2013, and the pre-Haswell ultrabooks, so to speak, won't be able to compensate for three quarters of poor sales, especially in such a weak global economy as this.