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November 3rd, 2010, 08:50 GMT · By

Despite Growth, Arctic Ice Is Still Minimal

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Graph showing Arctic sea ice extent between 1979 and 2010
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Climate experts say that, even if the frosty season began at areas around the North Pole, the extent of Arctic sea ice has not grown as much as it should. Rapid freezing occurred throughout the first half of October, but the amount of ice currently near the Pole is still diminutive compared to other years.

Arctic sea ice reached its lowest extent on September 19, marking the third-lowest spread in recorded history. Hope were high that the ices would extend come October and November, but that doesn't seem to be happening at the expected rate.

It was additionally observed that air temperatures in the region were considerably higher than the usual average, a fact that also hampered the formation of new ice sheets.

Satellite surveys show that the Arctic had 7.69 million square kilometers (2.97 million square miles) of ice this October, which means that this year's level is well below the 1979-2000 baseline.

Researchers say that some 1.60 million square kilometers (618,000 square miles) of ice sheets did not form this year when compared to others.

But investigators also have some good news. This year's ice extent for October was about 920,000 square kilometers larger than the lowest on record, which was measured in October 2007.

“Following the minimum ice extent on September 19, the ice cover quickly expanded as polar darkness returned to the Arctic and air temperatures dropped,” say experts at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

“Ice grew at an average daily rate for the month of October of 92,700 kilometers per day (35,800 square miles per day). This was similar to the growth rate in 2009, but slower than the growth rate following the 2007 and 2008 minimum ice extents,” they add in a press release.

As far as temperatures go, the investigators said that the air was cooled below the freezing point of water at all times. However, mean temperatures recorded for October showed differences of 4 to 6 degrees Celsius (7 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit) form normal values.

“The warm conditions resulted partly from regions of open water releasing heat to the atmosphere, and in part from an atmospheric circulation pattern that brought warm air from lower latitudes to the Arctic,” the NSIDC group reports.

The Arctic has been deteriorating steadily for the past few decades, and it now barely has any multi-year ice left. This is the ice that does not melt in the summer. Most of the ice sheets now around the North Pole are seasonal, and they disappear during the summer.

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READER COMMENTS:


Comment #1 by: Orkneygal on 06 Nov 2010, 00:48 UTC reply to this comment

Data Analysis of Recent Warming Pattern in the Arctic

http://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/6A/SpecialEdition/6A_1/_article


Masahiro Ohashi1) and H. L. Tanaka2)

1) Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba
2) Center for Computational Sciences, University of Tsukuba

Abstract:

In this study, we investigate the mechanism of the arctic warming pattern in surface air temperature (SAT) and sea ice concentrations over the last two decades in comparison with global warming since the 1970s.
According to the analysis result, it is found that the patterns of SAT and sea ice before 1989 are mostly determined by the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in winter. In contrast, arctic warming patterns after 1989 are characterized by the intensification of the Beaufort High and the reduced sea-ice concentrations in summer induced by the positive ice-albedo feedback.

It is concluded that the arctic warming before 1989 especially in winter was explained by the positive trend of the AOI. Moreover the intensified Beaufort High and the drastic decrease of the sea ice concentrations in September after 1989 were associated with the recent negative trend of the AOI. Since the decadal variation of the AO is recognized as the natural variability of the global atmosphere, it is shown that both of decadal variabilities before and after 1989 in the Arctic can be mostly explained by the natural variability of the AO not by the external response due to the human activity.

http://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/6A/SpecialEdition/6A_1/_article

Author’s Commentary

“According to our result, the rapid warming during 1970-1990 contains a large fraction of unpredictable natural variability due to the AO. The subsequent period of 1990-2010 indicates a clear trend of the AO to be negative. The global warming has been stopped by natural variability superimposed on the gentle anthropogenic global warming. The important point is that the IPCC models have been tuned perfectly to fit the rapid warming during 1970-1990 by means of the ice-albedo feedback (anthropogenic forcing) which is not actually observed. IPCC models are justified with this wrong scientific basis and are applied to project the future global warming for 100 years in the future. Hence, we warn that the IPCC models overestimate the warming trend due to the mislead Arctic Oscillation.”

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