DRAM Prices to Keep Falling Until Second Quarter of 2011

Apparently, the downhill price trend for DRAM contract prices will continue even in spite of the mild PC sales rebound that September and October will yield, which means that memory will get cheaper and cheaper until sometime next year.

As some may be aware, prices for DRAM, and semiconductors in general, have been on a steady decline for a while now.

For instance, mainstream DDR3 modules of 2GB dropped in price by US$2.01 per Gigabit, and this corresponds to a 5% decrease, to US$34.20.

In regards to DDR2 prices, modules of the same density did not suffer any price changes, though it is unknown how long this will last.

Also, in the case of some companies, prices are reportedly not within the acceptable, or at least favorable limits.

For instance, certain low-grade DDR3 4GB modules sold for as low as US$50, at least in certain Taiwan channels.

The main factor behind this decline is the policy that most PC OEMs have in regards to inventories, according to which they usually prepare more than six weeks ahead.

As such, they are unlikely to actually want to buy more DRAM modules before the end of the year, even despite the approach of the holiday shopping season.

The other factor is that major vendors are expected to keep producing more and more DRAMs, especially now that they are moving on to new manufacturing processes.

Samsung Electronics, for instance, has already advanced to its 30nm-class node, which means that the fourth quarter will see a solid output expansion.

All in all, the prices of any and all DRAM chips are expected to keep falling until sometime during the second quarter of 2011.

This outcome is seen as the most probable even though the September-October period is expected to yield a sort of rebound as far as sales of PCs are concerned.