Consoles Will Be Dead in 10 Years

The shouting match is really getting loud. There are those people that think the PC is dead as a gaming platform. Some of the loudest anti-PC voices come from people like Epic's Sweeney, who basically has led PC gaming for 10 years. And there are the people that point to the consoles as casualties in a few years. And ironically, they seem to be some of the same people that brought the consoles to the forefront of gaming. Take for example Sandy Duncan, who is the guy that basically set up the console business for Microsoft in Europe. In his perspective, consoles don't stand a chance.

In a recent interview with ThatVideoGameBlog, he has clearly stated that he believes "dedicated games devices i.e. Consoles will die in the next 5 to 10 years. The business model is very risky and the costs associated with creating new hardware are incredibly high." In their place we'll start to see "a definite 'convergence' of other devices such as set top boxes. There's hardly any technology difference between some hard disc video recorders and an Xbox 360 for example." In no more than 10 years, the PC will have won the battle for the hardcore gamers, interested in graphics and powerful AI, while the new gaming consoles will attract users than need accessibility and fun in short bursts.

It's been speculated by many that both Microsoft and Sony have sunk a lot of money into the current gen consoles and that any next generation console development would require even more funds with less security on the investment. Escalating costs might make some developers turn a critical eye on the consoles and try to create other devices, maybe less powerful but more versatile, that would compete with the PC.

Sandy Duncan goes even further. He thinks that most of the content will be virtualized. He says: "In fact in 5 to 10 years I don't think you'll have any box at all under your TV, most of this stuff will be 'virtualized' as web services by your content provider." So digital distribution will become the be all, end all of the media industry, allowing users to receive television programs, movies on demand and other media as they see fit on something that's half living room movie screen and half gaming rig.

Duncan is currently engaged in developing YoYo Games, a company that wants to democratize games development by giving users the tools to create games and the space to publish them on-line. Its site, mere 8 months after launch, hosts more than 10,000 games of which the first 5,000 attract at least 20 new players per month. Sandy Duncan truly believes that this is the future of gaming.