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Conflict in the Middle East Likely to Negatively Affect Iran

Some fear Iran could provoke a regional arms race

By Ruxandra Adam, News Editor

25th of July 2006, 12:57 GMT

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Many political analysts fear that Iran, despite its official statements denying any involvement in the Middle East conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, would ultimately be unable in avoiding fallout, given that it also bears the difficult disputes regarding its nuclear program.


One of the most worrisome issues regarding Iran's geopolitical position in the Middle East is related to concerns that this country could be able in the end, to start off a so called regional arms race, with the current conflict highlighting the possibility of nuclear material reaching Hezbollah militants' hands.

At the beginning of July, the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a Washington-based private group that monitors international trends concerning nuclear issues, criticized leaders of most powerful countries in the world for not respecting their promises to secure nuclear sources, with nuclear material remaining "dangerously vulnerable to either outsider or insider theft".

On the other hand, some analysts, like Nasser Hadian, a political expert at Tehran University, assert that ultra-conservative Iranian groups may use Israel's continuous military offensive in Lebanon as argument for never giving up on their nuclear know-how and technology, in order to protect themselves against any potential unjustified assault from the Israelis.

As far as Middle East is concerned, according to one senior military official, Maj. Gen. Seyyed Hassan Firuzabadi, who issued an official statement on Saturday, Iran would not get involved in the fighting in Lebanon under any circumstances. The reason why it would not do so is because of its own domestic issues. In spite of the massive popular and material support Hezbollah enjoys in Iran, there are many Iranians who wonder why their country keeps on "fueling" Hezbollah when their own internal economy is doing very badly and unemployment rates have soared to almost 40 per cent according to some independent reports.
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