14 DAY TRIAL // The economic recession seems to behave similarly to a volcanic cloud. It stays above a certain region for a time, after which it moves on to another. During 2008 and a part of 2009, the US was the hardest hit by the cloud of recession. Now, the cloud has moved on to Europe, bringing demand down to the point where NVIDIA stocks are no longer a viable purchase. Nevertheless, the worst is over, at least according to some analysts, such as those from Gartner, who believe that the chip industry will grow significantly during the ongoing year.
Initially, Gartner only predicted a 9.9% rise in revenues, but marketing conditions have since improved, because of a recovery in all regions and most product categories. PCs, mobile phones, automotive and select consumer products are expected to perform best, with the first two even set to account for 40% of the semiconductor market growth throughout the entire year. 2010 PC processor revenues, in turn, should grow 15.5%, whereas the DRAM market should surge 78% .
"Sequential semiconductor growth has been very strong over the last five quarters, well above seasonal norms, and manufacturing capacity is tight" said Bryan Lewis, research VP at Gartner. "Chip revenue growth is clearly outpacing system revenue growth and that is a concern. Gartner's new semiconductor forecast has below-average growth in the second half of 2010 as we are anticipating a minor correction to realign semiconductor sales with electronic system sales. Even with this minor correction, we are still expecting very strong growth and record semiconductor sales in 2010."
In the near term, media tablets won't have a noticeable effect on the PC market, but should influence it quite strongly by 2013. All in all, the semiconductor industry is expected, by Gartner, to surpass US$300 billion in 2011, a significant increase over the US$228 billion of 2009.