14 DAY TRIAL // Just yesterday, the US Geological Survey released a new report predicting earthquake activity in the state of California over the next few decades. Thus, the report in question estimates the likelihood that California could quite soon be hit by a massive earthquake, maybe even more.
The study, (rather pompously) titled the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast or UCERF 3, for short, is based on data obtained while investigating the behavior of the active geological faults the state of California is currently home to.
The report takes into account where and when the ground is most likely to slip along one active geological fault or another. It also focuses on shakes that rupturing faults have the potential to trigger. This makes it more reliable than the previous such studies released by the US Geological Survey.
The good news
In their UCERF 3 report, researchers with the US Geological Survey explain that, judging by present behavioral patterns of its active geological faults, the risk that California could experience shakes like the destructive 6.7-magnitude 1994 Northridge earthquake in the near future has dropped.
Specifically, the specialists argue that the expected frequency of such events now stands at about one per 6.3 years. When compared to the frequency documented in the 2008 UCERF 2 report, i.e. one per 4.8 years, this new figure constitutes a risk drop of roughly 30%.
Simply put, folks living in California have less to worry about experiencing an earthquake as strong as the devastating 6.7-magnitude shake that hit the region of Los Angeles back in 1994 and that was felt all the way to Las Vegas, Nevada.
The not-so-good news
The trouble is that, by the looks of it, what guys and gals in California should worry about is having a massive 8.0-magnitude earthquake shake up their home state. This is because the likelihood of such an event has increased to a considerable extent.
More precisely, it appears that the risk that California could be hit by an 8.0-magnitude quake presently revolves around 7.0%. In 2008, when the US Geological Survey published its UCERF 2 report, the risk for a shake of this magnitude stood at 4.7%.
“The new likelihoods are due to the inclusion of possible multi-fault ruptures, where earthquakes are no longer confined to separate, individual faults, but can occasionally rupture multiple faults simultaneously,” explains study lead author Ned Field.
The finds listed in this latest report documenting the likelihood of earthquakes happening across California over the next 30 years are expected to help authorities in the state take steps towards securing the regions that are most at risk before it is too late.
