Officials at the Boeing Company believe that the number of airplanes currently in existence in all of the world's fleets will double within the next 20 years or so. The company has plans to sell in excess of 34,000 new airplanes, on a market estimated to worth $4.5 trillion by around 2042.
The statistical projection is part of the Boeing 2012 Current Market Outlook (CMO), which was released today, July 3. This is the annual forecast produced by one of the largest profile corporations in the world. Boeing and Airbus exert undeniable dominance over the commercial aircraft market.
At the same time, the document suggests that the amount of airline traffic registered at this time will grow steadily, by around 5 percent annually, for the next two decades or so. At the same time, cargo traffic is expected to increase by 5.2 percent annually.
A robust growth will continue in the single-aisle aircraft market, where Boeing is participating with its Next-Generation 737 and the future 737 MAX airplanes. At the same time, the company produces widebody aircraft such as the 747-8, 777 and 787 Dreamliner.
The last-named will create a $2.5 trillion market all by themselves, since many Asian airline operators are extremely interested in the long-range capabilities of these fuel-efficient airplanes. More than 40 percent of new orders for these advanced aircraft come from Asia.
“The world's aviation market is broader, deeper and more diverse than we've ever seen it. It has proven to be resilient even during some very challenging years and is driving production rate increases across the board,” explains Randy Tinseth, the VP of marketing at Boeing Commercial Airplanes.
According to the forecast, between 2012 and 2031 Boeing will deliver 12,030 airplanes to the Asia-Pacific region, 7,760 to Europe, 7,290 to North America, 2,510 to Latin America, 2,370 to the Middle East, and a total of 2,040 to the Community of Independent States and Africa combined.
Most of the aircraft will go to China and India, which are the world's fastest-growing economies. Unfortunately, the new report brings the issue of pollution back into the spotlight.
While it's true that many of the new-generation airplanes, by Boeing and other companies, respect more rigorous fuel efficiency and noise norms, they are still a far cry from what is expected of advanced aircraft. The increase in airplane usage will result in even more pollution and GHG emissions.
The latter will lead to accelerated global warming and climate change, during a period where critical action is sorely needed in order to curb a potentially disastrous course for our entire planet.
As made abundantly clear by thousands of studies, the world is heading for a bleak future, and everyone with the power to do anything about it appears intent to ignore the entire issue.