Researcher Judit Györgyey-Ries says an asteroid about the size of the Statue of Liberty could hit us in October 2017

Apr 17, 2015 07:06 GMT  ·  By
Astronomer says there is a teeny tiny chance an asteroid will hit us in 2017
   Astronomer says there is a teeny tiny chance an asteroid will hit us in 2017

Remember how towards the end of last month the world went crazy about an asteroid set to buzz by our planet for fear that it could end up hitting us? Well, it's happening again. 

The space rock that is now grabbing headlines goes by the name of 2012 TC4. It was discovered in October 2012 and astronomers estimate that it measures 12 to 40 meters across (about 40 to 130 feet).

The last time the asteroid visited Earth was in October 2012, when scientists identified and catalogued it. Prior to its discovery, the space rock flew by our planet unnoticed on several other occasions.

Now, the meteor that exploded over Russia's Chelyabinsk region back in February 2013, injuring about 1,500 people and badly damaging local infrastructure, was roughly 20 meters (65 feet) wide.

If astronomers are right and 2012 TC4 really is twice as big as the space body that hit Russia, there is little doubt that, were it to hit our planet, we would probably witness a doomsday sort of scenario.

What are the odds 2012 TC4 could hit us?

In a recent interview with AstroWatch, University of Texas astronomer Judit Györgyey-Ries explains that the space rock will once again fly by our planet in October 2017.

The asteroid is expected to make its closest approach on the 12th day of the month. Since its exact orbit is still a mystery to astronomers, it's unclear just how close this upcoming encounter will be.

Based on what they know about 2012 TC4, scientists expect that it will come within 13,200 to 433,200 kilometers (8200 to 269,200 miles) of Earth. In astronomical terms, this counts as a close shave.

Still, the odds that it will hit us are infinitesimal. “It has a 0.00055% cumulative chance that it will hit,” Judit Györgyey-Ries admitted. “It is something to keep an eye on,” the astronomer nonetheless added.

“The distance is very small. But this distance does not mean the collision,” said Mokoto Yoshikawa, a somewhat more optimistic researcher with the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency.

Bottom line: yes, a pretty big space rock will come freakishly close to our good old planet in October 2017. Should we all pack our bags and move to Mars to avoid getting squashed by it? No, not really.