14 DAY TRIAL // Apple's iPhones have sold very well, so well that analysts are looking at Apple's initial estimate of 10 million by the end of 2008 as being very conservative. The end of 2008 is still a way off, but in the meantime, the question is how many of the little devices Apple will sell before the end of 2007. Strategy Analytics predicts that Apple's new iPhone will account for 10-percent share of total smartphone sales in the United States by the end of 2007.
Strategy Analytics defines a smartphone as a data-centric mobile phone with a multi-tasking operating-system and expects Apple to sell a healthy share of them. Neil Mawston, Associate Director at Strategy Analytics said, "We forecast 20 million smartphones to be sold in the USA during 2007. We expect Apple and its iPhone portfolio to account for 2 million of that total, giving it a 10 percent share by the end of the year."
The numbers sound good, until you stop actually thinking about them. The estimates for the first week after the launch of the iPhone were that 500,000 to 1 million of the devices were sold and there have been reports that AT&T has already activated over a million iPhones. Given the numbers, it seems absurd that Apple will only sell as many iPhones as they have sold so far for the entire remainder of the year. They should sell twice that during the Christmas shopping spree alone, not to mention the many months until then. The only reason Apple would only sell two million iPhones would be if they magically decided not to make the devices anymore.
As for the percentages, it will likely be a lot more than just 10%, but exactly how much more is uncertain. Apple is not just stealing customers away from every other cell phone maker, but it is also growing the market. The iPhone is revolutionary and powerful enough that it is persuading people who would have never considered such a phone to buy it. Other people are mainly buying it as an Internet device or an iPod. Apple hasn't just gotten in the smart phone game, it has changed the smart phone game.