A year ago, when Apple introduced the Apple TV, many expected it to be the herald of a revolution in the way that customers enjoy video content. Since then, the device has come to be regarded as little more than an experiment, with even Apple themselves calling it a hobby. Despite its lack of success, the problem with the Apple TV is not with the device itself.

Analysts were initially enthusiastic about the device, as were many customers. Unfortunately, the little box has a long way to go before becoming a hit. Forrester Research initially predicted 1 million sales by the end the year, but recent checks indicate that only about 400,000 Apple TVs have been sold so far. Even if another 400,000 of the boxes find homes during the holiday shopping season, it would still be well short of expectations.

While analysts have been overly optimistic with Apple products before, Forrester notes that the issue with the Apple TV is not the lack of customer interest, but the lack of a compelling experience. According to them, nearly half of all adults with access to the Internet say they have heard of the Apple TV, but only 5 percent of these have read up on it via Apple's website or took one for a spin at the company's retail stores.

The problem with the Apple TV is that of content. Unlike the iPod, that lets users take advantage of all the music they already own, the Apple TV does not make enjoying existing content, most of it stored on optical media, any easier. The video part of the iTunes Store is still highly underdeveloped when it comes to movies, and the NBC pullout did not help much when it came to TV shows.

Unlike iPods, where only an abysmal proportion of content used on them actually comes from the iTunes Store, the Apple TV has both its hands and one leg tied when it comes to video content, and the other aspects of the device, such as photos and music, are nowhere near enough to justify purchasing the device.

Much like in the case of the iPhone, where the rumors were a clear indication of what people wanted, the speculation about iTunes video rental is indicative not only of the fact that Apple might be doing it, but of the fact that customers really, really want it. Until it becomes a reality, the Apple TV is unlikely to move outside Apple�s garage and turn into a real product.