14 DAY TRIAL // Think back to the period running up to Christmas last year. High profile games were released every week, with a publicity and public relations blitz designed to drown out any other gaming news for those crucial first days to one week when blockbuster titles generate the biggest part of their sales. There is little sign of the long tale in videogame sales. After one week, the place held in our consciousness by Fable 2 is occupied by Gears of War 2, which will be dethroned by Fallout 3. And so on...
The bad news is that such a continuous cycle leads to a situation where big releases are the only ones making money, accounting for much more money we spend. Smaller releases need to be very specialized, created with a specific audience in mind and often don't bring back the money invested in development.
Talking to Gamasutra, NPD analyst Michael Klotz stated that “Looking at game sales from 2000 to 2008, 29 percent of the SKUs that were in the market accounted for 80 percent of the sales.” This trend changed in 2008, when “looking forward to year-to-date 2008, it's actually down to 20 percent.” This means that an ever smaller circle of releases, the Gears, the Fables, the Wii Fits, are being accountable for more of sales generated.
Klotz remarks that what we are “seeing that those top hits are the most important thing in the industry. And getting into that top-tier release is more important than ever before.” Those who cannot get there will likely go under, like Eidos or Midway are doing now, under pressure from creditors. Innovation tends to take a back seat as churning out more titles linked with franchises that are proved in retail takes center stage in the minds of publishers. And a worldwide economic crisis like the one we are experiencing is likely to accelerate this trend that could lead to a bleak 2010 release schedule during which we might only see sequels and spin offs. Metal Gear 5, anyone?