14 DAY TRIAL // Despite the growing popularity of the free-to-play and microtransaction-based business model for MMOs, at least one analyst believes that the upcoming The Elder Scrolls Online, from ZeniMax Online and Bethesda, will use a subscription model when it is released during 2013 and will then make a move to a free experience.
Nicholas Lovell, who is the founder of Gamesbrief, has told EDGE that, “I still believe that subscription games are on the way out. It is conceivable that Bethesda will launch with a subscription service to attract the early adopters, because that is the model they understand.”
He added, “They will switch to free-to-play later, in the same way that many iOS games go from paid to freemium over their lifetime. EA is struggling with The Old Republic, almost everyone else is transitioning to free-to-play.”
The development team working on The Elder Scrolls Online has not offered any sort of information on business models for the MMO, but a decision will presumably be made internally before the creation process is done, with the public announcement coming just a few months before the actual launch of the game.
Development on The Elder Scrolls Online began back in 2007, when ZeniMax Online was created, and at that point most MMOs were using subscriptions and the free-to-play model was seen as an alternative only for titles that were unable to otherwise gather a significant number of players.
Since then major titles, like The Lord of the Rings Online and DC Universe Online, have made the move towards the microtransaction supported model and analysts suspect that the same move will happen to Star Wars: The Old Republic within the next 12 months.
The Elder Scrolls Online might also consider the business model of Guild Wars 2, which will be launched later during 2012, asking players to pay for the core game package and any expansions and then allowing them to explore the game world for as long as they want without paying.