14 DAY TRIAL // The analyst Michael Pachter has stated that he expects the PlayStation Move from Sony and the Kinect from Microsoft, both motion tracking add ons, to get combined sales of between 20 and 25 million units before the end of next year, generating significant additional sales for the gaming industry.
In an investor note, Michael Pachter, an analyst working with Wedbush Morgan, has stated that, “Given recent guidance from Microsoft, it is likely that the two peripherals will have an installed base of 8 million by year-end, and depending upon pricing, we could see an installed base that approaches 20–25 million by year-end 2011”.
He added, “These 20–25 million households are likely to buy 2–3 games apiece, resulting in software sales of 40–75 million units and publisher revenues of $1.6–3 billion next year. These sales are not all incremental; clearly, consumers who buy Kinect or Move are console owners, and presumably, they would have bought other games had they not purchased the peripherals.”
The analyst believes that the two motion tracking devices could bring in more revenue for the gaming industry ranging from 500 to 800 million dollars, but sales linked to Kinect and to Move would lead to a slow down in games that are not motion tracking friendly.
Microsoft has recently stated that in 25 days since the early November launch, it has managed to sell more than 2.5 million units all over the world.
Not to be outdone, Sony has announced that the Move managed to ship to stores more than 4.1 million devices since the middle of September.
The problem with both devices is that they lack a big install base at the moment and it's risky for developers to commit the resources needed to create experience for them.
If the numbers mentioned by the analyst are mirrored in reality, then Kinect and Move might become more attractive to publishers and developers.