Battlefield 3 and Modern Warfare 3 cannot save industry

Dec 3, 2011 03:11 GMT  ·  By

2011 will be yet another year of overall decline for the retail video games market in the United States, despite the strong performance seen during the Black Friday period and the good prospects for the pre-Christmas shopping period.

Michael Pachter, who is an analyst watching the industry for Wedbush Morgan, stated, “Game publisher stocks have performed well for the year, although they pulled back in November, as investors appear to be hopeful that the return to positive territory we saw in September and October is sustainable through year-end and into 2012.”

The analyst note aimed at investors also shows that the analyst believes that Electronic Arts and Activision Blizzard are the main winners of the last few months, mainly because of the successful launches of Battlefield 3 from DICE and Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 from Infinity Ward.

Microsoft and Sony are also set to do well but Nintendo will face tough competition and Wii sales especially will see big year over year declines for November and December.

THQ is also seen as being unlikely to hit its guidance numbers for the fiscal year, mainly because of stronger than expected competition for its big release, Saints Row: The Third.

Pachter is also bullish on GameStop’s prospects for the coming months, saying that the retail chain will do well even if more and more players are being persuaded to get their content through digital means.

The big launch season of 2011 is now done, with Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 claiming the title of biggest entertainment release of the year, but publishers and developers are already looking forward to the first few months of 2012.

The year could see the first year on year growth for the industry since 2009 especially given the fact that the Wii U will be launched, presumably during summer, and Sony and Microsoft might announce new home consoles.