14 DAY TRIAL // Even though NVIDIA and even AMD have released their most powerful graphics technologies rather recently, both have already set their roadmaps for future architectures and product plans. Initially, the two rivals were going to base their next generation of products on TSMC's 32nm process. However, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company subsequently canceled the process, stating that it would, instead, move directly to 28nm. This means that both NVIDIA and ATI have to revise their roadmaps.
It is unclear what NVIDIA plans to do next, but, according to Semiaccurate, Advanced Micro Devices will supposedly scrap, or at least put on an indefinite hold, its Northern Island family plans. At first, the company was supposedly going to build the architecture on the 32nm process, but this is no longer an option.
It was decided that NI would, as such, be built on the 28nm, but more problems at TSMC, including the radical switch from the “gate first” to “gate last” approach, seem to have made a dent in these plans as well. Now, it is unlikely that even the 28nm will be completed by the year's end, which means that AMD will have to settle for what it already has if it means to refresh its product offer this year.
Semiaccurate states that ATI will be making what is now known as the Southern Islands GPU generation. These GPUs will be based on the 40nm process, which itself is still not completely problem-free, and will merge elements from both the current Evergreen GPU line as well as the unborn Northern Islands project. This will likely mean a lower than intended performance standard, but a fast time to market, given the experience that TSMC has earned with the problematic 40nm technology.
Unfortunately, there is no information on how long it will be before these new products go beyond the project stage.