Dec 9, 2010 12:14 GMT  ·  By
This statistical model predicts how many people will get sick from seasonal influenza, based on the analysis of circulating flu viruses.
   This statistical model predicts how many people will get sick from seasonal influenza, based on the analysis of circulating flu viruses.

A new research carried out by scientists at the National Institutes of Health, served as foundation for a computer model that projects the severity of this year's flu season, and that could be used in the planning process for seasonal influenza.

This statistical model predicts how many people will get sick from seasonal influenza, based on the analysis of circulating flu viruses.

“This paper represents a major step forward in our ability to predict the behavior of influenza and simultaneously opens up a new field of study,” said Edward Holmes from the Pennsylvania State University, an expert on the evolution of flu viruses, and one of the Editors of PLoS Currents: Influenza.

The study assessed the correlation between virus novelty and the epidemiologic seriousness of influenza, between the 1993/1994 and the 2008/2009 flu season, since previous research has shown that such a link between the severity of infections with the Influenza A virus and its novelty exists.

The researchers focused on the H3N2 influenza, which is the subtype responsible for the most severe influenza seasons during inter-pandemic periods.

The analysis of genetic data (sequences of hemagglutinin proteins from virus samples) and serological data (hemagglutinin inhibition results) have an assessment of the virus novelty.

According to the results, over 90% of the variation in flu severity could be explained by the novelty of the virus' hemagglutinin protein.

The genetic and serological data also showed that 66% of the variance in severity in the Northern Hemisphere, could be explained by projections from the Southern Hemisphere.

Having a way of accurately predicting influenza severity makes it only natural for scientists to be able to make more informed decisions in planning for influenza and selecting the appropriate vaccines.

The researchers said that for the coming season, it could prove very important to know which circulating virus in the current season produced more severe influenza than others.

This research appears in the open-access publication PLoS Currents: Influenza.