14 DAY TRIAL // A recently published report from ABI Research shows that about 75 percent of all WCDMA-capable base stations around the world are expected to have been upgraded to HSPA+ by 2015. According to the research firm, upgrading to HSPA+ will enable carriers deliver speeds of up to 56 Mbps, at least these are the speeds that operators already deploying the solution can offer to their users. In 2012, the total equipment spending on HSPA+ should account for 11 percent of the total equipment expenditure.
Among the carriers that have 3G licenses, many have rolled-out HSDPA and HSUPA, the firm notes, adding that, even if 4G is almost here, there are still a lot of issues to be addressed in this area. Many carriers still have to consolidate their 3G position, not to mention that the 4G spectrum awards will emerge in a fragmented manner, facing legislative and legal challenges in a series of markets.
“By the end of 2010, 20 LTE networks are expected to have flicked the 'on' switch, but it may surprise many that LTE will only make up 11% of installed base stations by the end of 2015,” says Jake Saunders, VP for forecasting at ABI Research. “LTE population coverage will have crept up to 600 million by 4Q-2012, but 4G marketing hype will precede 4G reality for several years to come.”
Ericsson, Nokia Siemens Networks, and Huawei are some of the vendors which can still profit from selling 3G and 3.5G equipment. Existing sites need upgrades, even if the proportion of greenfield base stations is lower. Carriers did spend a lot on equipment during the first quarter of the ongoing year, even if they were affected by the economic downturn that hit in the second half of the last year.
“4G equipment spending will be very much welcomed,” Aditya Kaul, practice director, commented. “But vendors are also targeting the remaining emerging market for 3G, and also securing 3.5G framework agreements. That should improve vendor earnings in the latter half of 2010.” More details on ABI Research’s “Wireless Infrastructure Forecasts” report are available on the research firm's website.