14 DAY TRIAL // The number of people able to enjoy 4G coverage is expected to reach 1 billion by the fourth quarter of 2012, a recent report from ABI Research shows. According to the research firm, that number will jump up from the 480 million people that were covered by 4G at the end of 2009, courtesy of the more than 170 carriers that adopted 802.16e in 65 countries. Moreover, the report shows that, while USB dongles helped 4G grow, the main increase factor will be mobile phones, such as those WiMAX-based handsets from HTC and Samsung expected to land at Yota, Sprint, and Clearwire.
While WiMAX is already live, carriers are currently looking out for LTE license, the research firm notes. Twenty carriers should deploy LTE networks by the end of the ongoing year. In 2012, 600 million people should enjoy LTE coverage, even if at the moment WiMAX is in a better position. At the same time, ABI Research says that the coverage will expand from urban hotspots so as to offer carriers the possibility to meet demand for mobile data.
When it comes to the number of 4G subscriptions, ABI Research says that it should reach 150 million by 4Q-2014. The market share of LTE and WiMAX will depend on the upgrades to 802.16m performed by WiMAX carriers. Vendors like Motorola and Huawei are already starting to offer “802.16e+” solutions that provide the features of 802.16m to the current market, and companies have started testing interoperability for 802.16m.
“TD-LTE is the wildcard. It was originally primed as an evolutionary technology for TD-SCDMA carrier China Mobile, but has been gaining interest from some WiMAX carriers. Both camps will be frantically trying to ramp up IC wafer manufacturing, product portfolios and population coverage. There will be considerable scrutiny over the next few years,” VP for forecasting Jake Saunders commented on the findings of the report.
Practice director Philip Solis added, “Some WiMAX service providers may switch from WiMAX to TD-LTE, but others are doing this partly as insurance and partly to assure investors of an alternate path so they may go forward with WiMAX. This is something for smaller greenfield service providers to consider. Large mobile operators will move forward with LTE whether it be on FDD or TDD spectrum. Clearwire can do both WiMAX and LTE if it wants to since it has the spectrum to do so.”
Additional details on ABI Research’s “4G Market Data” are available on the research firm's website.